Predicting student proficiency test scores

In order to predict how a school district would have scored when accounting for poverty and other income measures, The Cincinnati Enquirer gathered data from the Ohio Department of Education’s Education Management Services and the Ohio Department of Taxation (The Cincinnati Enquirer, November 30, 1997). First, the newspaper obtained passage-rate data on the math, reading, science, writing, and citizenship proficiency exams given to 4th-, 6th-, 9th-, and 12th-graders in early 1996. By combining these data, they computed an overall percentage of students that passed the tests for each district.

The percentage of a school district’s students on Aid for Dependent Children (ADC), the percentage who qualify for free or reduced-price lunches, and the district’s median family income were also recorded. Aportion of the data collected for the 608 school districts follows. The complete data set is available on the CD accompanying the text in the data set named Enquirer.

           

Median

     

%

% on

% Free

Income

Rank

School District

County

Passed

ADC

Lunch

($)

1

Ottawa Hills Local

Lucas

93.85

0.11

0

48231

2

Wyoming City

Hamilton

93.08

2.95

4.59

42672

3

Oakwood City

Montgomery

92.92

0.2

0.38

42403

4

Madeira City

Hamilton

92.37

1.5

4.83

32889

5

Indian Hill Ex Vill

Hamilton

91.77

1.23

2.7

44135

6

Solon City

Cuyahoga

90.77

0.68

2.24

34993

7

Chagrin Falls Ex Vill

Cuyahoga

89.89

0.47

0.44

38921

8

Mariemont City

Hamilton

89.8

3

2.97

31823

9

Upper Arlington City

Franklin

89.77

0.24

0.92

38358

10

Granville Ex Vill

Licking

89.22

1.14

0

36235

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The data have been ranked based on the values in the column labeled % Passed; these data are the overall percentage of students passing the tests. Data in the column labeled % o ADC are the percentage of each school district’s students on ADC, and the data in the column labeled % Free Lunch are the percentage of students who qualify for free or reduced price lunches. The column labeled Median Income shows each district’s median family income. Also shown for each school district is the county in which the school district is located. Note that in some cases the value in the % Free Lunch column is 0, indicating that the district did not participate in the free lunch program.

Managerial Report

Use the methods presented in this and previous chapters to analyze this data set. Present a summary of your analysis, including key statistical results, conclusions, and recommendations, in a managerial report. Include any technical material you feel is appropriate in an appendix.

 

[[Case Problem]]