If Punxsutawney Phil Sees His Shadow On February 2 Then The Legend Says That Win

If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on February 2, then the legend says that winter will last 6 more weeks. In 117 years, Phil has seen his shadow 103 times. What is the probability that Phil will see his shadow on a randomly chosen Groundhog day? What kind of probability is this?