PSY-520 Graduate Statistics

Topic 3 – Probability Project

__Directions:__ Use the following information to complete the assignment. While APA format is not required for the body of this assignment, solid academic writing is expected, and documentation of sources should be presented using APA formatting guidelines, which can be found in the APA Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center.

There are many misconceptions about probability which may include the following.

· *All events are equally likely*

· *Later events may be affected by or compensate for earlier ones*

· *When determining probability from statistical data, sample size is irrelevant*

· *Results of games of skill are unaffected by the nature of the participants*

· *“Lucky/Unlucky” numbers can influence random events*

· *In random event involving selection, results are dependent on number rather than rations*

· *If events are random then the results of a series of independent events are equally likely*

The following statements are all incorrect. Explain the statements and the errors fully using the probability rules discussed in topic two.

1. I have flipped and unbiased coin three times and got heads, it is more likely to get tails the next time I flip it.

2. The Rovers play Mustangs. The Rovers can win, loose, or draw, so the probability that they win is 1/3.

3. I roll two dice and ad the results. The probability of getting a total of 6 is 1/12 because there are 12 different possibilities and 6 is one of them.

4. Mr. Purple has to have a major operation. 90% of the people who have this operation make a complete recovery. There is a 90% chance that Mr. Purple will make a complete recovery if he has this operation.

5. I flip two coins. The probability of getting heads and tails is 1/3 because I can get Heads and Heads, Heads and Tails, or Tails and Tails.

6. 13 is an unlucky number so you are less likely to win raffles with ticket number 13 than with a different dumber.